This is the final round of the regular URC season. Eight matches on Friday and Saturday, with playoff spots and seedings very much still in play. Win probabilities based on current Betway odds.
Friday 15 May
Cardiff vs Stormers, 20:45 SAST (Cardiff Arms Park)
Cardiff come into the final round without much to play for, sitting just outside the playoff spots. The Stormers, on the other hand, are fighting for top billing on the log and potential home advantage in the playoffs. Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu has been in excellent touch and will look to control proceedings from the back. Cardiff have shown fight at home before but this feels like a Stormers job.
Win probability: Stormers 66%, Cardiff 34%
Ulster vs Glasgow Warriors, 20:45 SAST (Kingspan Stadium, Belfast)
Table-toppers Glasgow travel to Belfast knowing they have lost three away games in a row. Ulster, sitting eighth, need a result to guarantee their playoff place. They have won eight consecutive home games against Glasgow. That home record matters and the timing is perfect for Ulster to take advantage of a visitor who struggles on the road.
Win probability: Glasgow 55%, Ulster 45%
Edinburgh vs Connacht, 20:45 SAST (Hive Stadium, Edinburgh)
Connacht arrive on the back of seven wins in their last eight URC matches, full of confidence after beating Munster last weekend. Edinburgh have nothing to lose and outgoing coach Sean Everitt will want to go out on a high. Connacht are the clear favourites though, and with playoff seedings on the line they will not take the foot off the gas.
Win probability: Connacht 65%, Edinburgh 35%
Saturday 16 May
Sharks vs Zebre Parma, 12:45 SAST (Hollywoodbets Kings Park, Durban)
Comfortable home win on the cards. The Sharks hammered Benetton 46-7 recently and will want to finish the regular season with a statement performance at Kings Park. Zebre are in last place and have no answers for the pace and physicality of the Sharks backline.
Win probability: Sharks 99%, Zebre 1%
Bulls vs Benetton, 16:00 SAST (Loftus Versfeld, Pretoria)
Another near-certain home win. The Bulls have beaten Benetton in five consecutive meetings. Loftus is a fortress and with playoffs approaching, Johan Ackermann will want to maintain momentum and keep key players fit. Expect a big score, though whether they cover the massive handicap is a separate question.
Win probability: Bulls 99%, Benetton 1%
Leinster vs Ospreys, 18:15 SAST (Aviva Stadium, Dublin)
Leinster are heavy favourites here. They are in rich form after reaching the Champions Cup final and have home advantage. Ospreys have had a decent season but nothing in their recent record suggests they can produce an upset in Dublin.
Win probability: Leinster 85%, Ospreys 15%
Scarlets vs Dragons, 18:15 SAST (Parc y Scarlets, Llanelli)
The Welsh derby between two sides with nothing left to play for except pride. Both are rooted near the bottom of the table. On the markets these are trading at almost exactly even, which tells you everything you need to know. A real coin flip.
Win probability: Scarlets 52%, Dragons 48%
Munster vs Lions, 20:45 SAST (Thomond Park, Limerick)
The big South African interest match of the weekend. Both teams need the win. The Lions sit fifth and Munster sixth, with the loser potentially slipping out of the top eight and facing an away quarter-final. The Lions went into last weekend in excellent form having lost just one of their previous eleven games, but were beaten 31-7 by Leinster. Munster were hammered 26-7 by Connacht. Both sides dust themselves off and come to Thomond Park desperate for a result. The odds strongly favour Munster at home, but the Lions are a resilient side.
Win probability: Munster 73%, Lions 27%
That is the full Round 18 card. The playoff picture should be a lot clearer by Sunday morning. Share your predictions below.