Four quarter-finals this weekend decide who makes the URC semi-finals. Win probabilities are based on current Betway odds.
Friday 29 May
Glasgow Warriors vs Connacht, 20:45 SAST (Scotstoun Stadium, Glasgow)
Glasgow finished top of the regular season log with 65 points and will be confident at Scotstoun in front of their own supporters. What makes this tie interesting is that Connacht are not your typical eighth-placed side. They won seven of their last eight URC matches and arrive full of belief. The bookmakers have Glasgow as favourites, but the gap is narrower than you would expect for a number-one seed hosting a number-eight seed. A potential upset is in the air.
Win probability: Glasgow 57%, Connacht 43%
Saturday 30 May
Bulls vs Munster, 13:00 SAST (Loftus Versfeld, Pretoria)
The heavyweight clash of the weekend. Bulls and Munster have met in URC knockout rugby before, with Munster winning at Loftus in the 2023 semi-finals. The Bulls look strong in 2026 and Loftus remains one of the hardest grounds in world rugby to visit. Munster travel with injury concerns at out-half, which complicates things further. On paper this is the most one-sided quarter-final, and Loftus on a Saturday afternoon is about as tough as it gets for any visiting side.
Win probability: Bulls 79%, Munster 21%
Stormers vs Cardiff, 15:30 SAST (DHL Stadium, Cape Town)
Cardiff are in the URC playoffs for the first time since the old Celtic League era, which is a story in itself. They also beat the Stormers 22-16 in the final round of the regular season, so they arrive with momentum and the psychological edge of knowing they can win at DHL Stadium. The Stormers have Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu, who leads the entire URC with 158 points this season, and they will look to impose themselves through him. This feels like the most open quarter-final of the weekend.
Win probability: Stormers 63%, Cardiff 37%
Leinster vs Lions, 21:00 SAST (Aviva Stadium, Dublin)
Leinster are appearing in the URC playoffs for the eleventh consecutive season and remain the defending champions. They lost the Investec Champions Cup Final 41-19 to Bordeaux last weekend, so there is something to prove. The Lions are making their first URC postseason appearance and face an enormous task at Aviva. If this competition has taught us anything over five seasons, it is that South African sides are capable of competing in Ireland. The Lions will need a near-perfect performance to pull this off.
Win probability: Leinster 72%, Lions 28%
Three SA sides in the quarter-finals. If the Bulls, Stormers and Lions all go through, we could have a South African semi-final on 6 June. Let’s see if the visitors can cause some upsets.