Snow possible in Gauteng next week, here's what the forecast actually says

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There’s been a lot of chatter this week about snow reaching Gauteng, so worth separating what SAWS has actually confirmed from what the weather model chasers are speculating about.

What’s confirmed. A powerful cold front and a steep upper air trough make landfall over the Western and Northern Cape on Sunday 9 August, then push east through the Eastern Cape and into the central and eastern interior by Monday 10 August. SAWS is calling it cold to very cold, wet and windy, with rough seas along the coast and a real flooding risk in low lying areas, roads and informal settlements from the persistent rain. Damaging winds are also on the cards, enough to bring down trees and knock out power in places.

Where the snow is actually expected. SAWS has confidence in snowfall over the mountainous parts of the Free State, KwaZulu-Natal and Mpumalanga, the usual suspects for a system like this. That’s where the mountain pass closures and hazardous driving conditions are most likely.

And Gauteng? This is where it gets murkier. SAWS itself hasn’t specifically forecast snow for Gauteng, only a low probability of light snowfall over some higher lying areas outside the three provinces mentioned above. What’s driving the headlines is that some weather models are showing surface temperatures dropping to between -2°C and 2°C on Monday, with much colder air aloft, and give a small chance of light snow or sleet reaching parts of Johannesburg and the wider Gauteng area on Monday, possibly lingering into Tuesday. SAWS itself is only giving a 30% chance of rain for Monday, rising to 60% on Tuesday, so even the rain isn’t a sure thing yet, let alone snow.

One of the forecasters tracking this, Weather Hooligan, put it plainly: it might snow in someone’s backyard, but these are still probabilities from the models, not a forecast, and several atmospheric conditions have to line up at once for snow to actually reach the ground. The numbers have already shifted more than once in the last few days.

Short version: mountain snow in the Free State, KZN and Mpumalanga is close to a given. Snow actually settling in Gauteng is possible but far from certain, and the safest bet is to watch the SAWS updates over the next couple of days rather than plan around any of the more dramatic headlines. Either way, wrap up, it’s going to be a properly cold week.

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When last did we had snow in Gauteng?

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More recently than you’d think. Johannesburg had snow on 10 July 2023, the first time it had settled in the city in over a decade. Before that it was August 2012.

Gauteng as a whole sees it a bit more often than the city itself, since the higher ground around places like the Magaliesberg and the eastern escarpment edge catches snow that never reaches the CBD. But going by SAWS records, Joburg has only had snow on the ground about 22 times in just over a century, so whatever happens next week, it would join a pretty short list either way.

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And what about Pretoria?

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Pretoria’s clearest one on record is 7 August 2012, the same cold snap that hit Joburg, and it was the city’s first snow since 1981, so a proper 31 year gap.

The July 2023 event that dusted Johannesburg was mostly a Joburg and Sandton story. Snow Report SA had flagged Pretoria as being in the risk zone that morning too, but I can’t find solid confirmation it actually settled there the way it did further south. So depending on how strict you want to be about it, Pretoria’s last confirmed snow is either 2012, or possibly a lighter unconfirmed dusting in 2023.

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Cape Town’s going to take the full brunt of this thing on Sunday before it even gets close to Gauteng, so we’ll know pretty quickly how much energy is left in the system. Every time there’s a cold front the Joburg crowd starts posting snowflake emojis and by Tuesday it’s a few hailstones in Centurion and everyone acts betrayed. SAWS knows what they’re doing, if they’re hedging on Gauteng it’s because the models genuinely aren’t converging, not because they missed something obvious.

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Would be nice, want to build my first snowman :snowman_without_snow::smiling_face_with_sunglasses:

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Ja I’ve been watching this one too, the models have been flip flopping all week. Thing with Gauteng snow is the altitude helps but you need the moisture and the cold to line up perfectly, and that’s the bit that usually falls apart by the time the front gets that far inland. Cape Town copping it first on Sunday is actually a decent early warning sign, if the system’s still got real punch left after crossing the interior then Gauteng’s chances go up, but a lot of that energy just gets used up along the way.

I remember 2012 well, had family in Pretoria and they were properly chuffed, first time in 31 years is no small thing. RianS I wouldn’t get the carrot and scarf ready just yet, but if it does happen grab your gloves quick because Joburg snow never sticks around long enough for a decent snowman, more like a rushed job before it’s puddles again. Meanwhile down here we’re just getting soaked and windy, typical Cape winter carrying on regardless.

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Every year Joburg gets the snow hype and every year the Berg quietly gets the real thing while everyone’s staring at Sandton webcams. The passes through the Drakensberg and up towards Sani are the ones worth watching, those roads can close fast and catch people out. If you’re heading up to the Midlands or anywhere near the uKhahlamba side this weekend, check road conditions before you leave, not when you’re already on the N3.

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Randburg is already full of people posting “snow day” memes and I haven’t even seen a flake yet, which is pretty much what happens every single time a cold front gets anywhere near Gauteng. SAWS saying “low probability of light snowfall over some higher-lying areas” is not a snow forecast, it’s a weather model hedge, and the difference matters if you’re planning to drag the kids to Hartebeespoort to stand in a field. The Sneeuberg and the Drakensberg passes will close, that’s real, but Joburg getting actual snow you can scoop off your car bonnet needs a much sharper upper trough than this system is tracking to deliver.

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Update on this, since the picture has firmed up since Friday’s post.

SAWS confirms the cold front made landfall over the Western and Northern Cape Sunday 9 August, as expected. The upper air trough is deepening over the central and eastern interior today, and the coldest air is forecast to reach Gauteng from Monday evening into Tuesday.

On the snow question specifically, the latest model runs have actually pulled back from some of the earlier hype. SAWS’s official line is still just a low probability of light snowfall over some higher lying areas, and Vox Weather’s Michelle du Plessis said the newest models no longer indicate snow over Gauteng at all. Independent forecaster Juandre Vorster is more bullish, still flagging Monday as a live possibility for Joburg with some projections showing accumulation in favourable spots, but Vox Weather’s Annette Botha cautions that any snow mixing with rain over Gauteng may struggle to settle.

Realistic read for Gauteng: a sharp, genuinely cold Monday and Tuesday with temperatures well below normal, confirmed snow on the high ground in Free State, KwaZulu-Natal and Mpumalanga, and a small but real chance of sleet or light snow on Gauteng’s own higher lying areas. Not a guaranteed Joburg snow day, and the forecast has already shifted more than once this week as the cut-off low develops, so it’s worth checking SAWS’s warnings again this evening.

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What are the chances of rain? I could really do with some.

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@Arnold Some rain does look likely, though the picture is fuzzier than the temperature side of this.

Models agree Gauteng picks up rain as the cold front and cut-off low move through Monday into Tuesday, but they don’t agree on how much. Some runs put Joburg and Pretoria in the single digit millimetres per day, others show closer to 15 to 30 mm across the two days combined. That spread is normal for a cut-off low this close, since a small shift in its track changes the totals a lot, the same reason the snow forecast for Gauteng keeps moving around.

The genuinely heavy, flood risk rain in this system, over 50 mm in a day in places, is expected further south and east over the Northern Cape, North West and KwaZulu-Natal rather than Gauteng. So realistically expect a properly wet and cold Monday and Tuesday here, useful for gardens and dams, but not a drought breaker on its own.

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Here in Bloemfontein its not snowing in town, just cold and windy with some rain coming and going since yesterday. But go east toward the Lesotho border and its a different story, they got the white stuff properly and SAWS put out a level 2 warning for it. Neighbour of mine near Ficksburg side moved his sheep into the kraal early, good thing too because this wind will finish weak stock off quick if you dont get them out the open. Roads over some of the passes are closed I heard. Ag man, this is proper Free State winter, not the Gauteng snow drama everyone is excited about.

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Pretoria definitely gets it, though usually on the surrounding hills and koppies rather than in the city bowl itself, which sits a bit lower and warmer than Joburg. I remember the July 2023 snow well because half my team couldn’t get into the office that morning and we ended up doing meetings from home in tracksuits, which was a nice unplanned reminder of how quickly Gauteng weather can upend a normal working day.

What I find interesting is how unprepared we generally are for it compared to how prepared we are for load shedding or water outages. There’s no real municipal cold weather protocol here, no gritting of roads on the passes, and schools sometimes stay open when honestly they probably shouldn’t given how icy the roads to places like Sabie or the Long Tom Pass get. If this front does bring snow again next week, I’ll be curious whether Tshwane and Joburg metro handle it any differently this time round or whether we’re still winging it as usual.

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Final update on this one. The front and cut-off low moved through as forecast, and Gauteng got the promised cold and wet, but not the snow.

Tuesday’s SAWS provincial forecast had Johannesburg between 1°C and 4°C, Pretoria 5°C to 8°C and Vereeniging 4°C to 6°C, with cloudy, cold to very cold conditions and scattered showers. No snow warning was ever issued for Gauteng itself, and none settled.

The disruptive snow SAWS actually warned for landed where the earlier posts in this thread said it would. An Orange Level 6 warning, the higher of the two levels in play, covered the Emalahleni, Sakhisizwe, Senqu, Elundini and Matatiele municipalities in the Eastern Cape, with Yellow Level 2 warnings for parts of the Free State along the Lesotho border and the western parts of KwaZulu-Natal. Mountain passes in that belt closed, and Mpumalanga picked up flooding rain alongside it.

So the takeaway holds up. SAWS’s Gauteng “low probability of light snow” hedge was right to stay a hedge. The province got a proper cold snap and useful rain, and the snow stayed on the mountains where the forecasters said it would.

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Pretoria’s a bit different animal from Joburg because of the altitude difference, we sit around 300 to 400m lower than the JHB CBD, so snow that settles on the ridges around Johannesburg often just misses us entirely or comes down as freezing rain instead.

That said the Magaliesberg range on our doorstep gets it more often than people realise, the higher sections up near Hartbeespoort have had snow a handful of times in the last decade even when the city itself stayed dry. If this front is as strong as SAWS is suggesting, keep an eye on the escarpment stations rather than the Pretoria CBD readings, that’s usually where you’ll see it first.

Worth checking the SAWS synoptic charts directly rather than relying on the model chasers on social media, the GFS and ECMWF often diverge a lot on exact snow lines this far out. I’ve got a cheap weather station logging temp and humidity at home, going to be interesting to see how low we actually dip if this front comes through as forecast.